Tuesday, July 15, 2025

China's Economy Outperforms Forecasts Amid Trump Tariff Threats

China's economy has exceeded expectations, growing by 5.2% in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the same period last year, despite looming U.S. tariffs and a persistent property market slump. The figure, reported by China's National Bureau of Statistics, surpassed economists' predictions of 5.1% growth but fell slightly short of the previous quarter's performance.

The economy showed resilience, supported by Beijing's stimulus measures and a temporary trade truce with Washington. Manufacturing led the charge, expanding by 6.4%, driven by increased demand for 3D printing devices, electric vehicles, and industrial robots. The services sector, encompassing transport, finance, and technology, also contributed to growth.

However, challenges persist. Retail sales growth slowed to 4.8% in June from 6.4% in May, signaling weaker consumer spending. The property sector remains a drag, with new home prices dropping at the fastest pace in eight months, despite multiple government interventions.

Economists attribute the growth to a surge in exports, as companies rushed shipments ahead of potential new U.S. tariffs. "China remains highly resilient," said Gu Qingyang, an economist at the National University of Singapore, though he cautioned that stronger stimulus may be needed in the second half of 2025 to counter uncertainties.

Some analysts, like Dan Wang from Eurasia Group, are less optimistic, predicting China may miss its 5% annual growth target but will likely maintain a "politically acceptable" floor of 4% growth.

U.S.-China trade tensions continue to loom large. A tariff war saw the U.S. impose 145% levies on Chinese imports, with Beijing retaliating with 125% duties on select U.S. goods. Negotiations in Geneva and London have paused these tariffs, with a deadline of August 12 for a long-term trade deal. The U.S. has also targeted countries closely tied to China with heavy levies, adding pressure to global trade dynamics.

As the world watches, China's ability to navigate these challenges will shape its economic trajectory in the face of global uncertainties.


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