by 
Washington, D.C. – President Donald Trump’s flagship legislation, dubbed the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” has sparked intense debate as it nears a final vote in the U.S. House. The bill, which promises sweeping tax cuts and changes to welfare programs, has drawn criticism from Democrats, some Republicans, and billionaire Elon Musk, who has threatened to form a new political party if the “insane spending bill” passes. BBC Verify has fact-checked three key claims about the bill’s impact on national finances, Medicaid, and taxes.
**Deficit and National Debt: A $3.3 Trillion Increase?** The White House claims the bill will reduce deficits by over $2 trillion, but independent analyses tell a different story. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO), a nonpartisan agency, estimates the bill will add approximately $3.3 trillion (£2.4 trillion) to the U.S. deficit over the next decade, despite an initial economic boost. The U.S. national debt currently stands at about $36 trillion, with $29 trillion owed to investors globally. The CBO’s analysis indicates that the bill’s proposed tax cuts, totaling $3.75 trillion, far outweigh its spending reductions of $1.3 trillion. The Tax Foundation, a think tank, projects a 1% increase in U.S. GDP over 10 years but warns the bill will increase the deficit by $3.6 trillion. Experts, including Bobby Kogan from the Center for American Progress, argue that any short-term economic growth will be offset by long-term economic drag due to rising deficits. Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics adds that the bill will lead to “continued massive budget deficits” and a growing debt load, potentially raising interest rates for consumers and limiting business investment. Elon Musk has criticized the bill, claiming it represents “the biggest debt increase in history.” While this may overstate the case, the CBO’s projections confirm a significant deficit increase, contradicting White House claims of deficit reduction. **Medicaid Cuts: Up to 12 Million Could Lose Coverage** President Trump has stated that the bill leaves Medicaid “the same” and protects it for vulnerable groups. However, independent studies reveal substantial cuts to the program, which provides healthcare for about 71 million low-income Americans, children, pregnant women, elderly adults, and people with disabilities. The Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) estimates the bill will slash $1 trillion from Medicaid spending over 10 years. The CBO projects that nearly 12 million Americans could lose health insurance by 2034, with only 1.4 million of those being non-citizens, countering the White House’s claim that cuts primarily target “illegal aliens.” The bill introduces work requirements of 80 hours per month for able-bodied adults aged 19 to 64 in states that expanded Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act, along with more frequent eligibility checks and restrictions on state provider taxes used to fund the program. These changes could disproportionately affect low-income families, seniors, and people with disabilities, potentially leading to coverage losses even among eligible enrollees due to administrative barriers. **Tax Impact: Benefits Skewed Toward the Wealthy** Trump has warned that failing to pass the bill would result in a 68% tax increase for Americans, citing the expiration of his 2017 tax cuts set for the end of this year. However, the Tax Policy Center estimates that allowing those cuts to expire would lead to an average tax hike of 7.5% for about 60% of taxpayers, far below Trump’s claim. The White House did not provide calculations to support the 68% figure when pressed by BBC Verify. The bill extends the 2017 tax cuts, including lower income tax rates and a higher standard deduction, while adding new breaks, such as no taxes on tips and a $4,000 deduction for seniors. However, analysis from the Tax Policy Center shows that 60% of the tax benefits would go to households earning over $217,000 annually, making the bill highly regressive. Elena Patel, a tax policy expert at the University of Utah, notes that the bill results in a “massive redistribution from the poorest to the richest,” with low-income households receiving minimal tax relief—averaging $150 for those earning $35,000 or less—while facing significant losses from cuts to Medicaid and food assistance programs. **Political and Economic Implications** As the bill heads for a final vote, it faces resistance from both sides of the aisle. Some Republicans, including Senators Josh Hawley, Susan Collins, and Thom Tillis, have expressed concerns about Medicaid cuts and their impact on rural hospitals. Democrats, led by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, argue the bill prioritizes tax cuts for the wealthy over healthcare for vulnerable Americans. The American Bankers Association supports the bill, citing its potential to provide tax relief and boost the economy, but experts warn that the long-term fiscal consequences could outweigh short-term gains. With the U.S. debt trajectory already projected to reach 156% of GDP by mid-century, the bill’s passage could exacerbate financial pressures, potentially leading to higher interest rates and reduced affordability for consumers. As negotiations continue, the outcome of Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” remains a pivotal moment for America’s economic and social policy landscape.
